Starting in January 2008, the Dutch Inspectorate of Education uses a risk analysis to inspect schools. This inspection method signifies a change in how schools are inspected. Before 2008, all schools were scheduled for full inspections once every four years; after 2008 school inspections are targeted at schools with high risks of failing quality. A second change in method is the fact that school boards are now the primary contact and object of inspection instead of the principal of a school. In the paper below a program theory approach was used to reconstruct the assumptions describing intended effects of these inspection methods. The assumptions were evaluated to predict the (in)effectiveness of the inspection methods.
You can download the paper on the conceptual model here.